Why does my plan switch from Historical to Monte Carlo?

Learn why your financial plan may switch from historical data analysis to Monte Carlo simulation

Written by Cyarah Rogotzke

Last published at: October 15th, 2025
Income Lab uses historical sequences or returns and inflation back to 1871. While this over 150+ years of data is ample for most needs, there are situations where a plan is so long that even this amount of data is not enough to produce a retirement income plan and all of the other analytical data available in the Income Lab app (e.g., Plan Test, Retirement Stress Test). If a plan is very long and the software tries to stick with historical analysis, it would be using a very small set of historical scenarios as models for the plan. In this situation, the software will automatically produce a plan using the Traditional Monte Carlo analysis method instead.

You can see that this has happened by putting your mouse over the information icon near the plan's average returns information in the View More screen of the portfolio balance.
 

 

 

You can also see this information on the Investment Accounts tab of the plan data stepper, or on any investment account in Life Hub.
 

 

If you would prefer to use the Regime-Based Monte Carlo method for an extended plan, you can do so in that plan's advanced settings.

Each month, Income Lab adds another month to our historical data, so as time goes on, more long-term plans will allow for historical analysis.Â